When will blockchain get massively adopted?

Blockchain mass adoption has been the topic of interest lately as the technology evolves and integrates more and more areas of human activity. Blockchain fans are positive that on-chain solutions are going to shape the future. Crypto fans keep making estimations when this is going to happen, yet no one knows for sure, and what’s more — no one knows how to understand that it has happened, what can serve as a sign that here is blockchain adopted massively and warmly. The question is complex and not straightforward as blockchain serves as a part of technological background, behind the curtains of any on-chain solution across many fields of human lives.

With the purpose to find out what regular users think about it, there has been initiated a survey in the cryptocurrency circles asking people what should happen to indicate that blockchain has gone mainstream.

In fact, the number of blockchain wallets has passed 50 million in summer 2020, which is believed to be the user number sufficient to proclaim a technology massively adopted. For example, most used items today — such as vehicles, cell phones, and even the Internet were informally stated mainstream when they passed this psychological mark of 50 million users.

Blockchain technology does stand out from all technological breakthroughs presented to the humanity in the past by the speed with which it has become mainstream. Yet, it’s important to remember that the world today and the world some 20–30 years ago are two completely different worlds, the present-day one being much faster, evolutionary and — most importantly — consumer-oriented, which makes it totally unfair to compare blockchain and, say, Henry Ford’s cars or first mobile phones. In light of this, the 50-million number of users can be used as a metric for mass adoption, but it shouldn’t be the only metric to fall back upon.

However, there are сrypto experts who believe that the mark of 50 million users is more than enough to say that the technology is massively adopted.

What’s in the numbers?

Some people are accustomed to measuring success in figures. There wasn’t even a single participant in the survey who would answer with a number only. Yet, there was quite a remarkable answer “crypto is massively adopted when it becomes the basis for the digital finance”.

Taken from blockchain.com, the place that digital finance has in the world so far can be depicted as follows:

Of course, it’s arguable if it answers the first question simply because it’s unclear how to find out when crypto becomes the basis for the digital finance. Blockchain.com is aimed at reaching the level of 1 billion blockchain wallets within the next 10 years. For sure, this will mean that the tech is finally accepted on a global scale, but it’s easier said than done, as crypto needs to facilitate usage and simplify the way transactions are made, including their cost.

What about traditional performance indicators?

As for the traditional indicators that measure performance and efficiency, they aren’t fully applicable to blockchain. For instance, the number of users who download a software product can hardly demonstrate the importance and real utility of the technology used. In regard to it, the following list of additional factors was elaborated that can give a more detailed insight into the issue of blockchain adoption:

- Number of DLT within the network

- Number of network participants and the size of enterprises using the technology. This metric assesses whether these are small retail businesses or large corporations, how many people can benefit directly from using the tech.

- The trade in question — meaning how valuable this network is. It’s a complex indicator composed of several metrics such as the amount transferred monthly/yearly, the turnover, the revenue, etc.

- Popularity: is it widespread across the IT industry? How many companies use it?

As for the cryptocurrency industry with blockchain at the heart of it, the main indicator there is the coin’s utility and liquidity. The more products or services are available to be purchased with a particular cryptocurrency, the more chances its blockchain has for a mainstream adoption. Interestingly enough, as opposed to the public opinion that Bitcoin would be the first blockchain accepted massively, numerous crypto experts remain skeptical in relation to it. The price behavior of Bitcoin doesn’t encourage crypto holders to use Bitcoin for short trade, transforming it to store of value instead of means of exchange, which suggests that a range of decisively different metrics must be used in its regard.

Solution to the problem

Each newly emerged technology comes through different stages before it achieves masses. There will always be early supporters who would slowly form early communities further transforming to majority. In this gradation, Bitcoin is still in its early stage of development before being adopted massively. In other words, Bitcoin community is still composed of its early fans believing in its success.

For sure, Bitcoin has bright prospects and is here with us for a long run, but it needs to become more user-friendly with clear assessable benefits for a regular user and public as a whole, not just to certain crypto-related companies or individual traders. Only then will there come the mass adoption, already forecasted to take place by 2025. The main industries for blockchain to unleash its potential will be B2B supply chains, wholesale businesses, data management, digital finance as well as B2C payments.

How easy will it be?

At the moment, blockchain is perceived by regular people as high science, closer to science fiction. The majority of people don’t understand the technology, though it’s fair to say that the level of familiarization with blockchain is gaining momentum. In light of the above, it’s safe to say that blockchain is mainstream when people use it without even realizing it.

Ease of use is the first issue to be tackled. A pioneer in proving this was the Internet that rocketed in adoption once user-friendly Internet browsers were introduced to the public.

Another metric to show that blockchain has gone mainstream is how much people discuss it. Once blockchain is everywhere, people will stop examining it, as it will move to the background of the technologies that they use in their everyday lives. It’s everywhere when there’s no need to remind everyone that it’s everywhere.

No safe heaven

With the mentioned above in mind, we understand that it’s quite unclear what exactly is the threshold after which blockchain is massively adopted. There’s no precise official number of users, wallets, turnovers, etc., to claim it mainstream, as it’s a complex solution applicable in multiple industries for various use cases.

At the very least, to be claimed mainstream, it has to be able to solve one or a few problems that are all over the place. Therefore, it must be something more than just an instrument for market speculation. For blockchain to enter the real life, greater technical evolution might be required.